Pricing & Financials
Model: 05_Pricing_and_Financial_Model.xlsx (live formulas) · Prepared: 31 October 2026 · Currency: SAR
Bottom line. At the planned retail prices, the year-1 portfolio (launch + selected wave-2 SKUs) earns a 44.6% gross margin and SAR 254k net profit on SAR 1.60 m revenue in the base case. The conservative case (retail −5%, volume −40%, CAD +5%) loses SAR 101k. Only ProWhey and Creatine cover their allocated fixed cost at base volumes; Extreme Mass, Pre-Workout, L-Carnitine and TrimFit need higher volume or a lower fixed-cost base. The model is driven by placeholder ex-works prices until INOV provides a quote.
1. What the model does
The Excel file has seven sheets:
| Sheet | Purpose |
|---|---|
| Read Me | How to use the model; critical caveats |
| Assumptions | Yellow input cells: FX, duty, VAT, freight, insurance, SFDA/testing/artwork fees, fixed opex, channel margins |
| SKU Model | 14 SKUs; landed cost, net retail, importer price, GM/unit, GM%, break-even units, revenue, gross profit |
| Scenarios | Conservative / Base / Optimistic, rebuilt with live formulas |
| Sensitivity | ProWhey GM% grid: retail price −15% to +15% × ex-works −20% to +20% |
| Launch Plan | Wave-1/2/hold SKUs with revenue, GP and conditions |
| Sources | Source notes for the model inputs |
Yellow = input. Grey = formula. Change the yellow cells; everything else recalculates.
2. Key inputs
| Input | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| CAD → SAR | 2.6851 | open.er-api.com, 31 Oct 2026 |
| USD → SAR | 3.7500 | SAMA peg |
| Duty | 5% | GCC common tariff; most food |
| VAT | 15% | Standard rate |
| Sea freight + inland | USD 0.55/kg | ESTIMATE |
| Insurance | 0.5% of FOB | ESTIMATE |
| SFDA registration | SAR 5,000/SKU | SFDA guide |
| Testing | SAR 2,500/SKU | ESTIMATE |
| Arabic artwork | SAR 8,000/SKU | ESTIMATE |
| Fixed opex | SAR 462,000/year | ESTIMATE |
| Retailer margin | 30% | ESTIMATE |
| Distributor margin | 44% total | ESTIMATE |
| Marketplace commission | 15% | ESTIMATE |
3. Base-case outputs
| SKU | Landed cost | Net retail | Importer price | GM/unit | GM% | Break-even units | Annual units (base) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProWhey 5 lb | 122.9 | 347.0 | 242.9 | 120.0 | 49.4% | 700 | 3,000 |
| Creatine 400 g | 34.1 | 94.8 | 66.3 | 32.2 | 48.6% | 2,606 | 4,000 |
| Extreme Mass 5 lb | 92.3 | 190.4 | 133.3 | 41.0 | 30.8% | 2,048 | 1,200 |
| Extreme Mass 10 lb | 165.5 | 347.0 | 242.9 | 77.4 | 31.9% | 543 | 400 |
| Pre-Workout 480 g | 53.6 | 138.3 | 96.8 | 43.2 | 44.6% | 1,946 | 2,000 |
| L-Carnitine 180 | 48.0 | 103.5 | 72.4 | 24.5 | 33.8% | 1,717 | 1,000 |
| TrimFit 454 g | 63.7 | 155.7 | 109.0 | 45.3 | 41.6% | 927 | 800 |
| ISO-Whey 5 lb (hold) | 147.9 | 347.0 | 242.9 | 94.9 | 39.1% | — | 0 |
| Extreme ISO 5 lb (hold) | 167.8 | 390.4 | 273.3 | 105.5 | 38.6% | — | 0 |
| L-Arginine 180 (hold) | 48.7 | 86.1 | 60.3 | 11.6 | 19.2% | — | 0 |
| BCAA 180 (hold) | 48.7 | 112.2 | 78.5 | 29.8 | 37.9% | — | 0 |
| Extra Pump+ 180 (hold) | 57.4 | 129.6 | 90.7 | 33.3 | 36.7% | — | 0 |
| Lipofel 90 (hold) | 48.7 | 120.9 | 84.6 | 35.9 | 42.4% | — | 0 |
| Pro Milk 30 g (pipeline) | 6.3 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 14.0% | — | 0 |
Break-even reading. ProWhey needs 700 units to cover its SAR 84k fixed allocation; at 3,000 units it contributes ~SAR 360k. Creatine needs 2,606 units to cover its allocation; at 4,000 units it contributes ~SAR 129k. Extreme Mass 5 lb needs 2,048 units but is planned at 1,200 — it does not cover its allocation. Pre-Workout is marginal (1,946 vs 2,000). L-Carnitine and TrimFit do not cover their allocations at planned volumes. The portfolio is carried by whey and creatine.
4. Scenarios
| Scenario | Revenue | Gross profit | GM% | Net profit | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative (retail −5%, volume −40%, CAD +5%) | 914,439 | 360,637 | 39.4% | –101,363 | –11.1% |
| Base | 1,604,278 | 715,956 | 44.6% | 253,956 | 15.8% |
| Optimistic (retail +3%, volume +40%, CAD −3%) | 2,313,369 | 1,098,851 | 47.5% | 636,851 | 27.5% |
Sensitivity (ProWhey GM%). At the base retail and ex-works, GM is 49.5%. A 20% ex-works increase cuts it to 40.6%; a 20% ex-works decrease raises it to 58.4%. A 15% retail cut with a 20% ex-works increase would take GM to 30.1% — still positive, but thin for a brand with no marketing budget. The full 7×5 grid is in the Excel.
5. What to change first
- Replace column D (ex-works CAD) with the signed quote. This is the single biggest driver of the output.
- Confirm the freight rate with a forwarder for LCL Montreal → Jeddah/Dammam; the model uses USD 0.55/kg.
- Confirm the fixed opex with the Saudi partner (warehouse, staff, marketing).
- Confirm the channel mix. A distributor stack (44%) cuts ProWhey GM from 49.4% to ~41%; it is still viable but leaves less for marketing.
- Re-run the break-even after the first 90 days of actual sell-through; replace the volume assumptions with observed data.
6. Caveats
- Ex-works is a placeholder. The model is a decision tool, not a P&L forecast.
- Volumes are estimates. No NBP demand data exists; the base case is a planning assumption.
- VAT is treated as neutral for a VAT-registered importer; import VAT is a cash-flow item.
- Duty is 5% on CIF. A different HS classification could change the rate; confirm with a broker.
- No seasonality, returns, markdowns or bad debt are modelled. Add a 3–5% contingency in practice.
- Compliance cost is amortised over the first order. If the first order is smaller, the per-unit cost rises.
The full model, with live formulas and editable assumptions, is 05_Pricing_and_Financial_Model.xlsx. The waterfall chart is in charts/04_margin_waterfall.png.